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Amir Yaron: shocks appear to be coming w increasing frequency — implying this should give us food for thought.

#HooverFedConference

John Williams gives a prepared speech. Maybe I’m tired by this time in the conference, but I only woke up when he talked about lessons. I woke up because it sounded the analysis of what went wrong is completed. Nice try, but, no. #HooverFedConference

Austan Goolsbee: time dependent guidance is just an opinion and not useful - unlike state dependent guidance that has useful information. SEP forecasts are like time dependent guidance,
#HooverFedConference

Austan Goolsbee: SEP (summary of economic projection) is a collection of opinions without context. Dots cannot be connected to opinions, reaction functions.
#HooverFedConference

Amir Yaron, Governor Bank of Israel touched on war economy management:

credit card usage briefly plunged after Oct 7, substantial number of workers stayed home (fear of missiles).

Strong recovery, difficult to find seat in restaurants

6% of gdp construction, a third… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…

Finally, Larry Summers says if we get a Ross Perot style president, inflation will have had something to do with it #HooverFedConference @LHSummers

Larry Summers clarifies he doesn’t want a numeric inflation target in part because he wants flexibility to have inflation a bit higher to avoid severe recession in some environments. #HooverFedConference @LHSummers